Compound fertilizer market is owed good, the market is slowly warming up

Compound fertilizer market performance is more stable. In the absence of significant profits, short-term compound fertilizer still maintains payment for shipments. With the deepening of winter storage, market transactions are expected to gradually warm.

The new tariff policy introduced last week caused some fluctuations in the raw material market, but the cost of compound fertilizers was not significantly affected. Since last week, the raw material market does have a voice of rising prices. The reporter learned from the market that the urea ex-factory price in Shandong was increased by 50-80 yuan (t price, the same below), and the current factory price was 1520-1560 yuan; driven by the urea market, the price of ammonium chloride also showed signs of rising head, and the wet ammonium factory Quotes rose to 300 yuan, dry ammonium 360 ~ 370 yuan; Southwest ammonium prices rose 50 yuan, 55% of powdered monoammonium factory price rose to 2150 yuan. However, the new price is still being digested. After nearly a week, the market is not accepting new prices. A trader in Shandong told the reporter that after raw materials rose from various sources, the market had a small volume of transactions. On the one hand, the orders received in advance were not executed yet. On the other hand, there were doubts about the later price trend.

For compound fertilizers, the raw materials are stable and small, and there is no major advantage other than that. It is still too early to use fertilizer in Daejeon in the central region, and the preparation of chlorine base fertilizer has not yet begun. Greenhouses and fruit trees have relatively more basic fertilizers, but most secondary suppliers do not get fertilizers. Before the end of the northeastern area, the focus of spare fertilizer is still in diammonium. Next year, the export of diammonium will be cancelled in the busy season and will be levied at 100 yuan for the whole year. According to the current China's diammonium 465 ~ 470 US dollars FOB accounting, export and domestic sales prices. The reporter learned from the market that the number of export inquiries recently increased, and the enthusiasm of enterprises’ exports has also increased. According to the previous analysis of the tight domestic supply in the first quarter of next year, if the export volume increases in the first quarter of next year, the domestic market supply may face tension. In this psychological effect, the enthusiasm to improve the reserve of diammonium is also reasonable. Due to different rhythms of fertilizer use in the south, there are large differences in different regions. Looking at the whole, the first-tier business action is earlier and there is also a stable reserve plan. However, there is a big difference between the second-tier retailers. The stocking schedule mainly depends on the market's demand.

When the value-added tax is restored is the topic of the recent market's most concern. At present, it is known that there are three possibilities. First, the levy begins on January 1 of next year. The second leap begins with the second quarter and the third begins in the second half. If you want to rely on policy factors to boost the market, I am afraid you can only wait until the policy is announced before you can find some opportunities.

Internationally, the market continued to maintain stability last week. Baltic 48% compound fertilizer in-situ FOB price is 360-370 US dollars, 45% compound fertilizer 350-360 US dollars; German 45% compound fertilizer in bulk 315-325 euros. France's bulk 51% compound fertilizer spot arrival price of 360 to 365 euros. China's bulk 48% compound fertilizer CIF 385-405 US dollars; Southeast Asia bulk 48% compound fertilizer 395-415 US dollars; UK bagged 40% compound fertilizer (NPK content 20%-10%-10%) 305-315 pounds .