The issue of overcapacity in the shipbuilding industry has long been recognized by market observers. Experts predict that global shipbuilding capacity will exceed 50% in the next three years, while China's current utilization rate stands at just 75%, significantly below the international average. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology’s Equipment Department, led by Director Shu Min, has highlighted the challenges facing the sector.
China currently has more than 800 shipping companies, a number 40 times that of South Korea. This massive number indicates a highly fragmented industry, with many small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) struggling to compete. As a result, an industry reshuffle is expected, with weaker players likely to be eliminated.
In response to the growing problem, the State Council issued the "Guiding Opinions on Resolving the Contradictions of Serious Overcapacity in Production Capacity," targeting key sectors such as steel, cement, aluminum, flat glass, and shipbuilding. These measures aim to address the mismatch between supply and demand.
The global shipping market has been sluggish since the financial crisis, with new ship orders falling short and prices continuing to decline. This has intensified the overcapacity problem, pushing China’s shipbuilding industry into a downturn. In 2012, the utilization rates for these industries were all below the global average, further highlighting the severity of the situation.
Some analysts argue that overcapacity is a global issue. For example, in 2012, global new ship orders totaled 46.68 million DWT, but by September of this year, the figure had already reached 83.96 million DWT. Experts predict that global shipbuilding capacity will surpass 50% in the coming years.
To tackle this, the State Council also released the "Implementation Plan for Accelerating Structural Adjustment and Promoting Transformation and Upgrading of the Shipbuilding Industry (2013–2015)." This plan includes policies like early retirement of old vessels and single-hull tankers, aiming to reduce excess capacity.
Shu Min reported that progress has been made in addressing overcapacity. Domestic shipbuilding expansion has been curbed, corporate mergers have advanced, and industrial concentration has improved. Some outdated production facilities have been phased out, and the industry layout has become more rational.
According to Shao Heping from the Norwegian Plato Co., Ltd. Shanghai Representative Office, many private firms entered the shipbuilding sector during its peak but have struggled since 2007. Some companies now operate at a loss just to stay afloat.
With prices barely covering costs, some shipyards are forced to accept unprofitable orders. This has led to a widespread sense of pessimism among SMEs, who are waiting for the market to recover.
Shu Min urged companies to exit the market sooner rather than later, warning that not all of the 800-plus shipping companies may survive. To control new entrants, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has set strict standards for the shipbuilding industry, covering facilities, technology, quality, and environmental protection. Unqualified firms will be excluded from the sector.
Additionally, banks are encouraged to prioritize credit to compliant companies, supporting those that meet industry requirements.
As restructuring accelerates, many companies face the choice of transformation, merger, or exit. Industry experts emphasize that improving competitiveness and leveraging existing resources are crucial for overcoming overcapacity.
While some companies are shifting toward offshore engineering, the high technical barriers make it inaccessible for all. However, producing specialized ships can still offer a viable path for some SMEs.
Green and environmentally friendly vessels are also gaining traction. Shipowners are increasingly focused on fuel efficiency, making eco-friendly designs a competitive advantage.
For China’s shipping industry to thrive, government support and enterprise innovation are both essential. Strengthening financing, insurance, and high-value services, alongside internal improvements, will help the sector regain its former glory and build a sustainable future.
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