The future electricity price still needs a one-time reduction of 5-8 cents

The sharp drop in coal prices since late 2011 has led to a general reduction of about 1.5 cents per kilowatt-hour in the benchmark on-grid electricity tariffs across most provinces. However, this reduction is offset by increased renewable energy subsidies and environmental protection measures. The retail electricity price, on the other hand, remains unchanged. As a result, the real economy hasn't seen any relief in energy costs. For the coal industry, which sits at the upstream of power generation, the expected demand boost from lower electricity prices hasn’t materialized yet. In early 2013, a new coal-electricity linkage mechanism was introduced, triggering price adjustments when coal prices change by 5%. This adjustment is based on a natural year cycle, meaning it's applied throughout the year. However, such a long adjustment period may face increasing challenges in the future, especially as market conditions become more volatile. Looking at 2013, coal prices have dropped between 20% and 30% across regions. Given that coal accounts for around 80% of electricity production costs, with an efficiency level of approximately 300 grams of standard coal per kilowatt-hour, electricity prices should decrease by 6 to 10 cents. After accounting for previous price reductions, an additional one-time cut of 5 to 8 cents is still needed. This reduction must be fully reflected in the final sales price. Lowering electricity prices is a natural outcome of the price mechanism, and it is necessary to ease the financial burden on both households and businesses. Currently, China’s electricity prices are not low, and there is a pressing need to reduce the cost burden on residents and enterprises. Price serves as a key indicator of value, and its significance lies in its relative level rather than an absolute number. When comparing energy costs to income levels, Chinese consumers earn significantly less than their counterparts in Europe or the U.S. Despite this, electricity prices are already comparable to those in developed countries. This leads to high energy expenditures that squeeze other essential spending, becoming a major burden on household welfare. For industries and commerce, which operate in a global market, competitiveness is crucial. From an exchange rate perspective, China’s industrial and commercial electricity prices are 30% to 40% higher than in the U.S., and even higher than in neighboring Asian countries like South Korea. This gap negatively impacts the country’s competitive edge. The tax component embedded in the final electricity price reflects how governments tax energy consumption. In Europe, taxes can reach 30% to 50%, and the tax-exempt price represents the revenue available to producers. If costs are similar, this price reflects the efficiency of the market. Reducing electricity prices can immediately benefit both consumers and companies. If the government believes that low electricity prices conflict with energy conservation and environmental goals, it can address this by increasing taxation, using the revenue to fund green initiatives, and achieving dual benefits: improved competitiveness and sustainable development. It is misleading to assume that lowering electricity prices will lead to a rebound in high-energy consumption. Industries like steel, chemicals, and non-ferrous metals are often targeted due to their environmental impact. However, the real solution lies in improving environmental standards and enforcement. High energy consumption itself is not inherently bad; it’s the externalities that need addressing. Opposing electricity price cuts solely to prevent high energy use is confusing policy mechanisms. If certain sectors are deemed harmful, raising their electricity prices is a better approach than restricting price adjustments overall. Previously, punitive electricity pricing was used to curb high energy consumption. But there was no clear distinction between the price mechanism and policy tools. It remains unclear whether these charges were compensating for the negative effects of high energy use. These issues require greater transparency and reform. Electricity price cross-subsidies can also be eliminated. Historically, residential electricity rates were lower than commercial ones, but the introduction of tiered pricing reduced this subsidy. However, this system didn’t truly lower the total burden on residents, as higher commercial prices are passed on to consumer goods. It also misled consumer behavior without encouraging energy savings. The only real benefit was supporting the poorest households. Moving forward, this implicit support should be made explicit to ensure the policy is fairer and more transparent. Overall, eliminating cross-subsidies is essential for building a unified electricity market. If residential electricity prices rise by 50%, industrial and commercial prices could fall by 10%, bringing China’s electricity prices closer to U.S. levels. This shift would signal a clearer price signal to consumers and significantly improve the competitiveness of industries and businesses.

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