On the 9th of November, Shanghai Aluminum declined in volume, and the weakness increased. Shanghai Aluminum will remain in a weak pattern due to policy repression. There will not be much improvement in the short-term. Shanghai Aluminum Co., Ltd. on November 9 saw a sharp decline in Shanghai Aluminum. A slight rebound after opening slightly in early morning, followed by Powei's decline in the afternoon and closing at the day's low, with the major contracts falling by RMB 240--310 from the settlement price on the 8th. The intraday trading volume has been enlarged. The total volume was 35,150 lots. On the 8th, it was 19,222 lots. The total volume of the position was 69,514 lots, and the volume was lightened by 1,008 lots. The main 0501 contract opened slightly lower at 15,880 yuan, after which the oscillations fell. The higher was 15,940 yuan, the lower was 15,620 yuan, and it closed at 15,630 yuan. It was down 310 yuan from the settlement price on the 8th. The 20426 hand was traded, and the position was 24456. Masukura 1268. hand. The monthly spot price closed at 15,690 yuan, which was 240 yuan lower than the settlement price on the 8th. Shanghai Aluminum opened lower on the 9th and changed its narrow range in the past. The trend is very weak. The single-day decline on the 9th reached 300 yuan, and the period price broke the existing trading range and opened up the trading space. In the process of lowering the price, the transaction volume has been enlarged, which is a heavy volume drop. Obviously, the market's short-term atmosphere is relatively strong, changes in positions have not changed much, and continue to maintain a relatively low level. The market is obviously lacking in popularity. Spot aluminum prices also fell slightly on the 9th, the Shanghai area on the 9th of the spot price of the transaction range of 15930-15950 yuan, compared with November 8 fell 20 yuan. China Aluminum Corporation's offer for electrolytic aluminum fell by 300--400 yuan on November 9th, 16100 yuan for East China Market, 16,200 yuan for South China Market, and 16,150 yuan for Southwest China Market. Chinalco's alumina (primary product, second) offer remained unchanged at 4330 yuan. The domestic price trend is obviously weaker than the trend of aluminum in London, which is mainly due to the pressure of national policies. On October 29th, the Chinese people began to rely on the previous policy of raising interest rates. Although the rate of RMB interest rate increase is not large, everyone should realize that it is a continuation of the tightening policy, and the demand for raw materials such as electrolytic aluminum will be adverse influences. At present, the relatively new regulations concerning the control of alumina processing trade further raise the standards and requirements for enterprises engaged in processing of alumina processing. In accordance with regulations, trade-oriented enterprises and aluminum production enterprises with a production capacity of less than 100,000 tons/year will Can no longer engage in processing trade, the result will be a decline in China's aluminum net exports, domestic supply pressure increases, this policy will lead to aluminum prices outside strong and weak. Market rumors It is possible to cancel the export tax rebate policy for electrolytic aluminum from January 2005, which puts a lot of pressure on the domestic market. In the LME market, London aluminium was under pressure at 1,800 U.S. dollars, and the electronic session broke through the 1,800 U.S. dollar line during the Asian session. Obviously, it faces pressure from the adjustments. In addition, the overall rebound of the US dollar also supports LME aluminum prices. China's cancellation of export tax rebate policy is good for the internal disk that is negative for the external disk. However, the domestic electrolytic aluminum plant will certainly use the time before the end of the year to increase the intensity of aluminum exports, and the favorable stimulation of the international market should be discounted. Alumina prices remain high. At present, the CIF of imported alumina has risen to 470 US dollars / ton. In China, Chinalco alumina was raised to RMB 4330/t. Due to the high alumina production cost, the current production cost of electrolytic aluminum is around 16,000 yuan. Some small companies are even much higher, but the high raw material prices have not prevented the Shanghai Aluminum Group from going down on the 9th. If the enthusiasm of electrolytic aluminum producers is suppressed, the demand for alumina will also drop, leading to a drop in alumina prices. Technically, Shanghai Aluminum (0501) fell sharply and closed higher, indicating that the trend of price dropping was relatively strong and there was a demand to continue dropping. Affected by the bad policies, market sentiment is very low, and domestic prices will remain relatively weak. The market outlook and the possibility of dropping 15,000 yuan will be on the line. It is recommended that investors short-term single-operation.
