Recently, the Shanghai aluminum futures price continued to drop slightly due to the decline in the domestic spot price. The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum futures was mixed on Mondays. The main contract AL0507 closed at 16,630 yuan, slightly up by 10 yuan. In the short term, Lun Aluminum’s strong rebound will continue to demand a strong rebound. Meanwhile, the long-term aluminum price's high premium to the spot aluminum price also limits the downside of the aluminum futures market. However, domestic aluminum consumption has weakened and the alumina processing trade has been canceled. The rumors of the policy and the uncertainties in the adjustment of the RMB exchange rate all form a repression on the trend of Shanghai Aluminum, and the Shanghai aluminum future price will once again show a weak pattern. First of all, domestic aluminum consumption declined. From January to April this year, China’s aluminum consumption was 2.180 million tons, an increase of 11% year-on-year, and in April and May last year, it maintained a growth rate of around 25-30%. In contrast, the output of electrolytic aluminum in China is still huge. From January to April, the domestic output of electrolytic aluminum was 2.333 million tons, a slight decrease from the previous quarter, but the increase rate was still as high as 14.8%. In the international market, IAI's newer data showed that the daily output of primary aluminum was 63,800 tons in April 2005, which was higher than the 63,200 tons in March. Although the aluminum stock consumption is lower than the historical value since 1973, However, the support for aluminum prices clearly cannot offset the slowdown in aluminum consumption. Secondly, there may be rumors in the market that China will cancel the low-tariff preferential policy for alumina processing trade from June 1. This will lead to a large increase in alumina imports in the first quarter, which will increase the pressure on late-stage production. China is the world's largest spot alumina importer. About 30% of China's imported alumina and 80% of export aluminum enjoy preferential policies for processing alumina. Because of concerns that the cancellation of processing trade concessions will further squeeze corporate profits, the previous smelters imported alumina in large quantities. In the first quarter, China’s alumina imports amounted to 1.74 million tons, an increase of 46.2% year-on-year. The domestic spot pressure will be very heavy in the later period. In addition, China’s expectation of adjusting the RMB exchange rate will also put pressure on Shanghai aluminum prices. Chinese aluminum producers import raw materials and process them into electrolytic aluminum before they are exported. Once the renminbi appreciates, global aluminum prices will generally stabilize, but Chinese manufacturers’ export prices will fall in RMB, which will reduce the enthusiasm of smelters for exports. Technically, the Shanghai aluminum futures price is subject to pressure near the moving average, and the energy index continues to decline. In the later period, the weak consolidation will continue to be dominant. Investors should establish short-term thinking and short rallies.
