Polysilicon supply is tight in the first quarter of 2014

Abstract According to a research report by EnergyTrend, a division of TrendForce based in Taiwan, there could be a potential shortage of photovoltaic (PV) materials in the first quarter of 2014. The report highlights that strong demand from downstream sectors is expected to continue, putting pressure on supply chains. TrendForce notes that current polysilicon production levels are projected to support approximately 7.2 GW of PV module shipments per quarter next year. However, this may not be enough to meet rising demand. EnergyTrend anticipates that wafer demand in Q1 2014 could reach around 8 GW or more. With lower polysilicon inventory levels, supply may remain tight until new capacity comes online or existing facilities increase output. Still, the shortage is unlikely to affect overall net volume significantly. Polysilicon prices are expected to rise before producers can ramp up idle capacity to match demand. This could lead to a situation where PV module supply fails to keep pace with demand during the first quarter of 2014. Additionally, as Japan and the UK adjust their feed-in tariff policies at the end of the quarter and fiscal year, PV demand is likely to surge in Q1 2014. In 2013, EnergyTrend estimates that global grid-connected solar capacity reached 28.6 GW, with component shipments totaling around 33.3 GW. These figures reflect the growing momentum in the solar industry, driven by policy changes and increasing adoption worldwide.