Overproduction of excess coal in stockpiles

The data released by the General Administration of Customs recently showed that in the first quarter of this year, China’s coal import volume reached 80 million tons, maintaining a growth rate of more than 30%. At the same time, the coal price has fallen and fell again and it is difficult to change the trend. Take thermal coal as an example. At present, its index has fallen for 5 consecutive months, and it has fallen by 248 yuan/ton from the 2011 high price point.

Faced with the low-lying state of China's coal market, it is reported that the National Energy Administration is currently seeking opinions on the restriction of high*low-speed coal import regulations in the industry, and plans to set entry thresholds for importers. Analysts said that with the acceleration of new energy development, the next step in the coal industry may have to enter a more difficult period, the industry is facing reshuffle, the situation is not optimistic.

The overstocking of coal production excess inventory has been serious since the beginning of this year. China's coal production, transportation, and consumption growth have fallen, inventory levels have risen, prices have fallen, and the market has shifted from the basic balance at the beginning of the year to a generally loose one. The surplus of major coal products is quite obvious. A number of brokerages issued a report that the second quarter is still the off-season demand for coal, coal companies will continue to plight.

Statistics show that at present the domestic coal mines under construction and built coal mines have a capacity of more than 4 billion tons, while the national coal consumption is estimated at about 4 billion tons, plus the impact of about 300 million tons of imported coal. The oversupply of production capacity will not change the loosening of the coal market in the short term.

Coal sales are difficult and coal mine stocks continue to increase. Due to the sluggish coal market and sluggish coal sales, coal inventories in various regions have increased in varying degrees. According to statistics from the Coal Transportation and Marketing Association of China, at the end of February, there were 37.90 million tons of inventories of major national coal companies, which was an increase of 9.76 million tons year-on-year, an increase of 34.7%, and the inventory was very serious.

According to statistics from Shaanxi Coal Administration Bureau, as of March 31, Shaanxi's coal inventories amounted to 2.874 million tons, an increase of 287,700 tons, an increase of 11.16%. The year-on-year increase of 705,500 tons, an increase of 32.52%. Among them, Shaanxi Province has a coal deposit of 2,620,900 tons, an increase of 292,700 tons, an increase of 12.57%. The year-on-year increase of 615,500 tons, an increase of 30.76%; Central Enterprise Shendong Coal Group Co., Ltd. in Shaanxi coal mine stock of 254,400 tons, a decrease of 0.4 million tons, a decrease of 1.55%. An increase of 89,900 tons, an increase of 34.50%.

Shandong coal market is also not optimistic. At present, Shandong power plant inventory explosion, Jinan Railway Bureau has limited installed coal. As the net transfer of coal to the province of Shandong, two years ago, the power companies in the region were suffering from high coal prices, and today's “dropping” coal prices and straight-up inventory pressure are the most devastating to local coal companies. of.

According to the data, as of the beginning of April this year, 37 power plants in Shandong Province have adjusted the power coal reserves to 10.5 million tons, and the average daily coal consumption is estimated to maintain the use of more than 29 days. Corresponding to this, Yankuang Group has an inventory of about 1.1 million tons, and Shandong Energy Group has an inventory of about 1 million tons. With the weak demand for power plants and the stimulation of high coal stocks, the Jinan Railway Bureau has restricted the shipment of electric coal and has stopped coal shipments from outside the province into Shandong.

Henan is also "full of coal." At present, the generating capacity of power plants in Henan Province has continued to shrink, and the demand for thermal coal has picked up hard. Most power plants are full of coal. According to the survey, inventory of Xuchang and surrounding power plants has remained high. Dengfeng Huarun Power Plant has stopped collecting coal in order to reduce inventory; Xuchang Longgang Power Plant has basically stopped entering coal, if the coal needs to be approved by leaders. Kaifeng power plant coal yard coal stocks have been full, the power load is insufficient, only the stock of coal can be used for more than 25 days.

According to statistics from Zhongneng Power, as of March 31 this year, the national key power plants stored 73.93 million tons of coal, and the available days for storing coal were 20 days. Although the number of days available for storage was 6 million tons lower than that at the beginning of March, the decline was not significant. At present, the total number of coal deposits in the six major coastal power plants has decreased by 2.01 million tons from the beginning of March to 15.78 million tons. The available days for storing coal are 25 days, and the coal deposits are still high.

China Coal Industry Association analysts believe that China's coal demand this year will continue to maintain low-speed growth, the coal market continues to show a relatively relaxed trend of supply and demand. Due to the severe and complicated situation at home and abroad, the factors of instability and uncertainty in economic operations are still relatively large, and the impact on the development of the coal industry cannot be underestimated.

Imported coal backlog of port energy bureaus or measures to take stock of large stockpiles of coal this year, also has an important relationship with the "big soldiers" of imported coal. In recent years, imported coal has exacerbated the oversupply situation in the coal market in China, and the production space for domestic and large coal enterprises has been constantly being squeezed. According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, China's annual import of coal was 289 million tons in 2012, an increase of 29.8% from the same period last year; in the first quarter of this year, China’s coal imports reached 80 million tons, maintaining a growth rate of more than 30%.

Although China is a big producer of coal, it has been a net importer of coal for four consecutive years. According to customs statistics, following the first time in 2011 that Japan surpassed Japan to become the world's largest coal importer, China’s coal import volume of 290 million tons in 2012 continued to rank first in the world. It is the fourth consecutive year that China has become a net importer of coal. In 2012, China's cumulative import of coal was 290 million tons, an increase of 107.6 million tons compared to 2011, a year-on-year increase of 59%. At the same time, in 2012, China exported 9.28 million tons of coal, which was the lowest level since 1986, and it was also the first time that the export volume of coal since 1987 was less than 10 million tons.

Guangxi Fangchenggang is the largest port in western China and one of the 20 major hubs in China. Coal has always been the main imported cargo in Fangchenggang. In 2012, Fangchenggang's coal throughput exceeded 24 million tons, accounting for more than one-third of the total port throughput. Recently, however, the terminals at Fangchenggang have almost become “coal warehouses” and there is already a clear coal backlog.

Liu Yutao, deputy general manager of Xiguchenggang Beibuwan Port Affairs Group, said that many coal deposits on Fangcheng Port's terminal yard have been stored for more than six months. Some of them have been piled up for more than a year. Currently, the backlog of coal in Fangchenggang is very serious.

According to Liu Yutao, since the second half of 2012, coal import prices have been sluggish, and the backlog of coal has continued for a long time. Fangchenggang’s inventory capacity is 15 million tons, and its current inventory capacity is 12 million tons, which is saturated considering that a part of the turnover space is to be set aside.

The city and Hong Kong are just a microcosm, and major coal import ports such as Guangzhou Port and Qinhuangdao Port are also operating at high inventory levels. According to the data released by China Coal Industry Association, China's annual import of coal was 289 million tons in 2012, a year-on-year increase of 29.8%. The data released by the General Administration of Customs recently showed that in the first quarter of this year, China’s coal import volume reached 80 million tons, maintaining a growth rate of more than 30%.

According to statistics, China, as a net importer of coal, has increased imports of lignite (representative of high*low-calc coal) by more than 9 times in the past three years. At the same time, imported coal is flooded with a large number of low-grade coals with high ash, high*, and low calorific value, which has formed a threat to China's environmental protection. Therefore, the industry’s call for restricting the import of inferior coal, adopting uniform standards at home and abroad, raising the threshold for imported coal quality, and prohibiting the import of low-value raw coal that has not been washed have become increasingly strong.

According to media reports, the National Energy Administration is seeking opinions in the industry on restrictions on the import of high*low-grade coal. According to regulations, the calorific value of coal imported from abroad must not be less than 4,544 kcal/kg, the ash content should not exceed 25%, and the quantity* should not exceed 1%, and importers should be given entry thresholds.

However, according to industry analysts, there is a serious excess of domestic coal production capacity, and the coal industry is facing the slowdown in domestic economic growth and the resulting slowdown in the growth of coal demand. Even if coal import restrictions are implemented, it is difficult to fundamentally solve the problem. Market dilemma.

The industry expects that with the accelerated development of new energy in China, the coal industry will face reshuffle in the next few years. The continued decline in China's thermal power investment in 2013 will become a reality, and the number of new installed capacity will decrease. Although the long-term perspective, the entire society has a very high growth in electricity consumption, thermal power still has potential for development. However, at present, thermal power is oversupply, overcapacity, and meager profits, and investment may be less and less.