Abstract core note: This week, the market for electrolytic manganese is still in a downturn, and the price of manufacturers is still stable and weak. Because the stainless steel market is still poor, the price of electrolytic manganese has not increased, and at the same time, under the support of cost, the resistance of price decline is also higher. Large; silicomanganese prices are at a low level, in the case of a small amount of spot...
Core Tip: This week, the electrolytic manganese market is still in a downturn, and the manufacturers' quotations are still stable and weak. Because the stainless steel market is still poor, the price of electrolytic manganese has not increased, and at the same time, under the support of cost, the resistance to price decline is also greater. The price of silico-manganese is at a low level. In the case of a small amount of spot, the low-cost supply is gradually reduced. Due to the lack of spot stock and low factory operating rate, the price of silico-manganese has stabilized this week. First, the news interpretation
1.Vietnam Ministry of Finance will increase export tariffs on manganese concentrates in 2013
On May 14, the Ministry of Finance issued a notice on amending the tax rate of some mineral products in the export tax schedule. Among them, apatit, mangan and manganese concentrates, and iron-bearing ore-bearing iron-bearing concentrates containing more than 20% manganese; copper ore and copper concentrates; lead ore and lead concentrates; Mines and titanium concentrates, as well as inmenit mines and inmenit concentrates, have an export tax rate of 10 percentage points, from 30% to 40%.
China's imports of manganese ore from Vietnam are not large. In 2012, China imported a total of 14.13 million tons of manganese ore from Vietnam. The increase in Vietnam's export tariffs has little impact on China.
2. Ministry of Commerce: It is expected that the growth rate of consumption will drop to 13% this year.
Consumption as the first engine to drive economic growth may be difficult to secure this year. Yesterday, the "2013 Consumer Market Development Report" issued by the Ministry of Commerce Research Institute (hereinafter referred to as the "Report") said that the annual consumption growth rate is expected to continue to fall, and the total retail sales of social consumer goods will remain at around 13%. This may lead to a decline in the contribution of consumption to economic growth. This also means a lower likelihood of achieving the expected target of 14.5% growth in consumption this year.
Judging from the growth trend of investment consumption this year, consumption is hard to protect as the first driving force for the economic growth of the “troikaâ€. This year's investment growth impulse is far greater than consumption. This year's government work report emphasizes that the role of investment in promoting economic growth cannot be underestimated. Under the background of the concern of urbanization, this year has been implementing a proactive fiscal policy for the fifth consecutive year. Although monetary policy is still stable, M2 has already exceeded 10 billion yuan. The annual investment growth environment is better than consumption, which may lead to investment. The contribution rate to GDP is higher than consumption.
Second, price monitoring
Table 1: Weekly Monitoring of Manganese Quotes (2013.5.13-2013.5.17)
3. Electrolytic manganese, manganese alloy, imported manganese ore
1. Electrolytic manganese
From May 13th to May 17th, the price of electrolytic manganese was mainly stabilized this week, and the market was flat and there was no obvious change. On May 17, the mainstream price of manufacturers in Jishou area was stable at around 13,100 yuan / ton.
This week, the market for electrolytic manganese is still in a downturn. As the spot supply and demand and cost have not changed significantly, the price of electrolytic manganese manufacturers is still stable and weak. As the stainless steel market is still poor, the price of electrolytic manganese has not shown any signs of rising, and at the same time, under the support of cost, the resistance to price decline is also large.
In terms of raw materials, the price of manganese ore and sulfuric acid has stabilized this week, and the price of selenium dioxide has not changed. On May 17, 98% of selenium dioxide was quoted at 330-340 yuan/kg, down 15 yuan/kg from last weekend; the 98% sulfuric acid ex-factory price in Hunan was stable at around 350-400 yuan/ton.
Figure 1: Price chart of electrolytic manganese in Jishou area (2013.5.13-2013.5.17, unit: yuan/ton)
2. Manganese alloy market
From May 13 to May 17, the overall price of silicomanganese and ferromanganese was stable this week. Due to the relatively low price, the factory production enthusiasm was low. On May 17, Guizhou and Hunan silicon manganese 6517 tax-included factory acceptance price is 6650-6800 yuan / ton, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia silicon manganese 6517 tax-included factory acceptance price is 6600-6800 yuan / ton, southern silicon manganese 6014 does not include tax The quotation is 5500-5650 yuan / ton, Hunan, Guizhou manufacturers high carbon ferromanganese 65C7 a group of phosphorus including the factory price of 6200-6300 yuan / ton.
This week, the price of silicomanganese was low, and in the case of a small amount of spot, the low-cost supply gradually decreased. At present, the price of silicomanganese is too low, the production of silicon-manganese manufacturers is severely reduced, and the consumption of the previous inventory has become very small. At the same time, the overall operating rate of the factory is also low, and the price is therefore greatly supported in the short term.
This week, the price of ferromanganese is relatively stable, and the purchaser still has obvious purchasing behavior of price reduction. However, ferromanganese manufacturers are also reluctant to make concessions due to high cost. Low demand and low output are still the main features of the current ferromanganese market.
Figure 2: The trend of the production and acceptance of silicomanganese 6517 in the main producing area (2013.5.13-2013.5.17, unit: yuan / ton)
3. Imported manganese ore market
From May 13 to May 17, there was no significant adjustment in the price of imported manganese ore this week. Although the demand is still poor, the offer of miners is still stable. The current price of manganese alloys is low, and the downturn in steel has made the recent manganese alloy market rebound, and the demand for imported manganese ore is difficult to improve in the short term.
Fourth, the international market review
The market for silicomanganese and ferromanganese in Europe and the United States continued to move steadily this week, and the price of electrolytic manganese was relatively stable
Table 2: Statistics on the latest quotation of MB metal guide manganese
Fifth, the next parade
1. Stainless steel market
This week, the 201 hot-rolled strip market has a general drop of 50-150 yuan/ton. So far, the 201-semi-copper narrow strip does not include tax 7500-7750 yuan/ton, and high copper does not include tax at 8200-8750 yuan/ton. There are few steel mills producing high-copper resources. It is reported that among the 23 narrow-belt mills, the output of 201 high-copper narrow-band is less than 30,000, and the total number of wide-boards is close to 30,000. The resources are not much, and the goods are good.
Since the beginning of this year, the market has continued to slump and has not improved, prices have continued to innovate low, and steel mills have continued to lose money. According to feedback, under this circumstance, some steel mills have begun to adjust the product structure, such as: Ningbo Tiandi restarts the production of 202, 301, 316L, Beihai Chengde mainly produces 201 and a half copper, and the total output of wide board production points More than 60%. The main problem in the current spot market is still oversupply, too much spot resources, downstream purchases, and the raw material market is not enough to form a support. The market lacks a good boost, and the business is generally bearish on the market outlook. Detect space.
2. Steel market
According to the latest statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, in April, China's crude steel output was 65.65 million tons, up 6.8% year-on-year; the average daily output was 2.188 million tons, up 2.3% from the previous month. The daily output of crude steel for the month was second only to 2.208 million tons in February, which was the second highest in history. The data also showed that from January to April, the cumulative output of crude steel was 258 million tons, up 8.4% year-on-year; pig iron production was 239 million tons, up 7.0% year-on-year; steel output was 334 million tons, up 10.5% year-on-year. With the arrival of the rainy season, the steel market price is weak and difficult, and the situation facing the steel industry in the second quarter is not optimistic.
Sixth, the market outlook
Electrolytic Manganese: The next demonstration is weak, and the cost support for the price is also strong. It is expected that the price of electrolytic manganese will stabilize next week, with little fluctuation.
Manganese alloy: Supported by falling inventory, low operating rate and low price, the prices of silicomanganese and ferromanganese are relatively stable in the short term.
Imported manganese ore: The price of manganese alloy has temporarily stabilized, and the demand for imported manganese ore is still poor. It is expected that the price of imported manganese ore will continue to stabilize and weaken next week, and the price adjustment is still small.
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