Many people have criticized that the domestic capital market missed a large number of outstanding technology companies, and another group of technology companies missed the opportunity of development because of lack of capital support.
The domestic mainboard market has been criticized for being unfriendly to technology companies, because technology companies are not profitable under the financial statements of the industrial era, and thus cannot reflect value. Unable to reach the A-share listing conditions can only choose to go far away.
Now, the science and technology board has come, providing the foundation for the IPO and mergers and acquisitions of these companies.
At the opening of the science and technology board, the quality of the information submitted by the intermediary agencies was uneven, reflected in the preparations for each of our links under the hurricane. From regulators to intermediaries, companies and investors preparing to go public, I am afraid that many companies and investors who are ready to join the board are not prepared.
In the process of IPO and mergers and acquisitions, the valuation of science and technology enterprises is the core and must be solved. The valuation of the science and technology board is becoming the first bastion that institutions must overcome.
In this battle, the entry of a large number of unprofitable technology companies is a scene that many organizations have never encountered.
In mid-May, at the closed meeting of the Economic Observer Management and Innovation Institute, the experts raised their respective answers.
Conclusion of different scenarios
How much is the enterprise worth?
The conclusions are different in different scenarios.
Lu Jiegang, vice president of China United Assessment Group, said that mergers and acquisitions, IPOs, or financial measurement are all different.
For example, in the process of M&A transactions, considering the value of an enterprise, more based on the target company, what benefits the acquisition party can bring, synergy and so on.
If the IPO is different, such as the estimated market value of the science and technology enterprises, this means the price of the secondary market. "In the A-share market, the Hong Kong stock market, the same enterprises, the value is expected to be different." Lu Jiegang said, in addition to the concept of hypothetical assumptions, the same company, for different investors, the value is also different .
The valuation of technology companies must also consider the stage of development of the enterprise. For start-ups, the valuation method of mature companies does not apply in practice.
At present, for start-up companies, many methods are partial to theory, and there are various difficulties in the practice.
For example, for popular comparable company methods, it is easy to go wrong when applied. The popular semiconductor industry is a case in which the semiconductor industry in some countries such as the United States is relatively mature, and China is still in a high growth stage. “Different countries, valuation indicators, comparison indicators are definitely not the same.â€
Now, it is becoming less and less suitable for the valuation to be an accurate number. Lu Jiegang believes that in many systems such as securities and state-owned assets, it is hoped that the investment will be made into accurate figures. However, from the perspective of the evaluation agency, it is hoped that more emphasis will be placed on the sensitivity analysis of the companies being evaluated. "As an intermediary, I hope to provide a reference for both parties to the transaction, from the original single value to the provision of an interval value." Lu Jiegang said.
Technical assets and company valuation
Liu Zhengping’s company is engaged in technology transfer and technology commercialization services, and they can be considered as a group of “technical investment bankersâ€. In their business, the assessment of the value of technology is a core issue. Liu Zhengping is the executive deputy general manager of Kewei International Technology Transfer Company.
Liu Zhengping said that in essence, the price of technology is determined by the dynamic changes in technology supply and technology demand. However, from a practical point of view, as a special commodity, technology is far more complicated than ordinary commodities, which comes from the complexity of technology and the uncertainty of the future market of new technologies.
Major new technologies are always recognized by everyone after they have been substantially developed. They are identified from the sea of ​​whirlpools and confusing early technologies, discovering new technologies for industrial application prospects and commercial value, and assessing their value to all technical managers. It is a huge challenge.
Huang Xiaolin, a partner of PricewaterhouseCoopers China Assessment Consulting Services, will encounter financially how to measure the value of these assets.
Huang Xiaolin said that technology assets are knowledge-based assets that exist in the form of information. The higher the technical content, the wider the application scenarios covered, and the higher the economic value.
In addition to several mainstream technical assessment methods, the assessment of technical assets has also kept pace with the times, and some new types of assessment methods have emerged, such as the real option method and the greenfield method.
Huang Xiaolin said that in the market environment where enterprises are facing uncertainty, technology strategy is an important part of the overall strategic decision-making of enterprises. The real option method links the value of technology with the strategic decision-making of enterprises, highlighting the value of technology in uncertain environment. .
The Greenland Law reveals the value of technology itself from the perspective of entrepreneurship by analyzing the value of start-ups that rely on technology to start a business. The application of this approach breaks through the scope of technical assessments and tests the assessment consultant's experience and strength in evaluating innovative start-ups. These are all new assessment methods tailored to the new economy.
Because Liu Zhengping's company will also hold shares in some technology companies, when they want to withdraw from these companies, they will turn from the value of technology to the value of a company.
The core issue of enterprise value assessment is how to estimate future cash flows. However, for technology-driven companies, especially those whose products have not yet been developed, or whose products have just entered the market, “estimating future cash flows is a very difficult or even impossible task,†Liu Zhengping said.
In practice, Liu Zhengping's approach is: first based on the technical price, estimate the value of these enterprise technologies, and the future benefits, and then correct.
From valuation to game
Huang Xiaolin’s discovery is that the capital market has given higher valuations to “hard technology†companies. The value of technology clearly plays an important role in these “hard technology†companies.
The complexity of technology and the uncertainty of new technologies in the future market constitute major obstacles. But how do you evaluate this technology?
The Global Industrial Research Institute of Tsinghua University proposed the TUMC model, which is a model of industrial success and the maturity of emerging technology industrialization.
This model is based on the strategic rhythm theory proposed by Professor Yang Bin and Professor Zhu Hengyuan of Tsinghua University. This is a framework for how to develop a strategy in a dynamic environment.
Song Dejun, chief researcher of the Global Industry Research Institute of Tsinghua University, said that the four dimensions of the TUMC industry maturity assessment model are technology, user utility (userUtility), market (Market) and industry chain (industryChain).
TUMC is a growth model. Determining the development stage of the industry from this model provides an idea for the development strategy of technological innovators.
For example, in the industrial chain dimension, a new technology must survive two breakthroughs. First, you must embed in an existing industry or find alternatives to existing industries. When more and more participants come in the market, they will begin to have a proprietary value chain element. This is the second node, and a new industrial chain will be formed slowly, and emerging industries will be born.
The pharmaceutical sector is the focus of innovation, and it is expected that a group of companies in this field will be listed in the future. However, the field of medicine is very special. Many investments may not be commercialized for more than a decade, and it is also a difficult area for valuation.
Zeng Huihui, a professor of pharmacy at Peking University and founder of Kaixi Pharmaceutical, proposed a three-level valuation method.
She mainly divides the existing biomedical enterprises into three categories, namely, original innovative enterprises, innovative technology enterprises, and technology product enterprises. Although all three types of enterprises can create economic value, different levels of enterprises have different ability to control the industry, and the trading patterns involved are different.
Zeng Huihui believes that in the field of medicine, real innovation is driven by the original innovative enterprises, which have the ability to control their industrial fields.
In an innovative technology company, it is possible to continuously follow up on the latest progress through technical capabilities and possibly gain some benefits. However, in a subdivision, except for Top5 companies, there are no business opportunities for other companies.
The third type of technology product enterprise is to convert products into commodities. Such companies can only make quick money through commercial methods and through other aspects.
Innovative companies at different levels have different driving abilities. For pharmaceutical companies, different levels of drugs mean different trading patterns.
Despite having a more systematic framework, in the view of Gao Tejia executive partner Fan Dalong, the level of valuation “skill†is not the most important. He believes that the essence of the valuation problem is to discover the value itself and the psychological game between people.
He said that although investment is looking for certainty in uncertainty, but the uncertainty is too great, there is no way to make value investment, so the concept of investment at the "dao" level is completely overturned. “The most fundamental way to estimate is to thoroughly understand this company. The most important thing for this company is entrepreneurs. So the most important thing for investing is to look at people and see people become thousands of people.†Fan Dalong said, “Everything is It is the victory of values ​​and mechanisms. In the final analysis, it is the victory of people."
Return to commercial origin
Regardless of how it is valued, the most important thing is the company itself.
Tian Lihui, professor and president of the Institute of Financial Development of Nankai University, put forward the importance of corporate governance. He said that corporate governance creates value. In addition to providing financial support, the company has provided an opportunity to regulate the corporate governance structure within these companies, which is also a significant significance of the science and technology board.
Under a good corporate governance structure, the company will gain more capital on the basis of everyone's trust. "A good corporate governance company and a poor corporate governance enterprise may have a world of difference in the future," Tian Lihui said.
Shi Wei, chief researcher at the Institute of Finance and Securities at Renmin University of China, said that there are three main methods for valuation of science and technology enterprises: benchmarking, uniqueness assessment, and growth assessment.
However, "the essence of the valuation problem is how to define the company." Shi Wei said that he is also the leading expert of Huaxia Cornerstone Management Consulting Group.
Shi Lang proposed a concept of "the fate of the enterprise." In his view, the fate of a company consists of three mechanisms.
The first is the governance mechanism. For science and technology-based enterprises, “the equity is dispersed, the power is concentratedâ€, and “the enterprises with too much equity may not have a futureâ€. The second is the incentive mechanism. To be a great cause, we must find long-term partners. The long-term partners reflect that the equity is the team holding. The third is the values ​​and cultural mechanisms. Whether a company can grow up can find the source of culture from the beginning of the embryo. No matter how different the personality of the founder of this company.
The Shi Wei team has studied hundreds of listed companies and covered major Chinese companies. He said that some are Confucian, like Zhang Ruimin; some are Taoist, like beautiful; some are military, like Ren Zhengfei of Huawei, all with cultural colors, summing up the common cultural characteristics of these people, culture is long-term. "Some new entrepreneurial teams today may be speculative from the beginning of culture. This is the core issue why many companies in China have not been able to break through in technology for decades." "If it is a long-term enterprise, it is generally Can become." Shi said.
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