Abstract Photovoltaic modules and polysilicon industries located in the middle and upper reaches of photovoltaics have been questioned for over a long period of time due to overcapacity. In the first two years of the industry's depression, even some orders or prices were lower than the cost, and even some PV upstream companies were forced to stop working. Since the second half of last year, with the photovoltaic power station...
The photovoltaic modules and polysilicon industries located in the middle and upper reaches of photovoltaics have been questioned for a long time due to overcapacity. In the first two years of the industry's depression, even some orders or prices were lower than the cost, and even some PV upstream companies were forced to stop working. Since the second half of last year, with the burgeoning construction of photovoltaic power plants, the photovoltaic industry has clearly recovered, and the upstream industrial chain is also emerging from the “ice-sealing periodâ€, and the recovery of volume and price has begun to appear. Polysilicon prices soared
The price of polycrystalline silicon, the raw material for photovoltaics, has risen rapidly. This round of price increases began in December 2013. According to statistics, the ex-factory price of secondary raw material polycrystalline silicon wafers is about 5.7 yuan / piece ~ 6 yuan / piece, the price of polycrystalline silicon film is generally 6.5 yuan / piece ~ 7 yuan /sheet. The price of the first-grade raw material polysilicon also increased significantly. In March 2013, the price of polysilicon ex-factory was only 120 yuan/kg~130 yuan/kg. Recently, the price of polysilicon has risen to 160/kg~180 yuan/kg.
The main reason for the price increase of polysilicon in this round is that downstream demand is relatively strong. Since the fourth quarter of last year, there has been a significant increase in domestic installed capacity. The price changes brought about by demand are transitive, and the downstream demand increases, first driving the sales growth of PV modules and gradually transmitting them upstream. From a single point of view, the current capacity of domestic polysilicon currently operating normally does not meet market demand. This is mainly due to the sluggish industry before, the price of polysilicon fell, and many companies with higher production costs stopped production because they could not make a profit. Although the price has recovered, most of the production capacity has not recovered.
Another factor affecting prices is the anti-dumping and anti-monopoly “double-reverse†policy. In January of this year, China's Ministry of Commerce issued a double-anti-final ruling on US and South Korea. The anti-dumping duty on imports of polysilicon from the United States ranged from 53.3% to 57%, and the anti-dumping duty on imports from South Korea ranged from 2.4% to 48.7%. The implementation of this policy has weakened the price advantage of imported polysilicon abroad and brought some space to the domestic market. However, industry insiders said that the role of "double-reverse" is limited. Nowadays, foreign polysilicon has been traded in China, thus avoiding the influence of policies. Therefore, for a period of time, imported polysilicon will still occupy half of the country.
One researcher believes that the price increase of polysilicon has slowed down and the trend will stabilize. It is understood that the capacity recovery of the polysilicon industry is very fast. At present, there are still many production capacity that have not yet been put into use. With the gradual release of these production capacities, the market supply and demand will recover quickly. According to reports, polysilicon enterprises are divided into three echelons, the leading enterprises of the first echelon maintain normal production, and the industry concentration is high; the medium-sized enterprises of the second echelon are gradually resumed production as the price rebounds to a certain level; Echelon companies, due to technical limitations and other restrictions, it is difficult to resume production, most have been eliminated in the previous industry reshuffle. "This year's upstream demand will increase compared with the same period last year, but there will be no such large-scale overcapacity in previous years." The researcher said.
Component demand is steady and rising
As the middle reaches of the industrial chain, PV modules feel the industry's recovery earlier than upstream polysilicon. Compared with the price of polysilicon in the first quarter of this year, the price of PV modules has gradually increased since the third quarter of last year, but the overall situation is relatively stable. Since the statistics in March last year, the tax price of 240W polysilicon modules ex-works from 3.6 yuan / watt ~ 4.3 yuan / watt, up to the current price of about 4.5 yuan / watt ~ 5 yuan / watt. In the past month, some manufacturers began to show small price cuts.
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