Key points: Leading enterprises in the diamond tool industry are diamond tools, power tools and carbide tools. Among them, diamond tools contribute more than 70% of the company's revenue, and currently have a leading position in the diamond tool industry. The company's future plan for the three business income ratio is 4:4:2, that is, diamond tools and power tools go hand in hand, on the one hand, actively expand the new sales field of diamond tools to consolidate the dominant position, on the other hand, vigorously cultivate the power tool business to become a new profit growth point.
The long-term demand potential of the industry is relatively large. In terms of diamond tools, it is conservatively expected that the domestic market will grow at an average annual rate of more than 15% in the next four years, and China will bear most of the global supply, especially in the field of ceramic diamond tools, China and other developing countries. The demand potential is still large. In addition, the status quo of the less concentrated industry has promoted the integration of the industry into a trend, so the leading enterprises will benefit first; in terms of power tools, China also bears most of the global supply, and currently there is still about 10% of the import substitution space in the domestic market. The application field continues to expand, and it is conservatively estimated that the market size of the power tool will still reach a growth rate of more than 10% during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period.
Diamond Tools: Expanding Sales and New Fields to Promote High Growth The current company has two advantages in the field of diamond tools: First, the company's actively expanding ceramic processing field has begun to take shape. With the opening of sales channels, this business has entered a rapid year. During the growth period, according to the conservative calculation of gross profit margin of 40% or more, it is expected to contribute EPS of about 0.02 yuan this year. Second, the company is actively planning to enter the whole industry chain of stone, taking into account the current high growth rate of stone production and diamond tools in the field of stone. The obvious advantages, as well as the company's existing extensive sales channels, we believe that diamond tools in the field of stone are also worth looking forward to.
Power Tools: Will Become a New Profit Growth Point Because the downstream demand sector is broader than diamond tools, the company wants to take a bigger share of the power tool market with its broad channel advantage in the diamond field. At present, the company's position in the field of power tools is mainly in the mid-end market. The core components have already achieved independent production, and the product line has been gradually improved. The current gross profit level is about 25%. Therefore, we believe that the growth potential of power tools is greater than that of diamond tools, and it is expected to become a new profit growth point for the company.
Investment recommendations and ratings are expected to be 0.28, 0.35 and 0.42 per share for 12-14 years, corresponding to dynamic PEs of 28.07X, 22.45X and 18.71X. As a leader in the industry, the company will fully benefit from the long-term demand potential of the industry and the development opportunities brought by industry consolidation. At the same time, expanding the new channels of diamond tool sales and actively cultivating the development of power tools will drive the company's performance to continue to grow and maintain the company's "recommended" rating.
Risk warning 1. Downstream demand is lower than expected; 2. The investment project is put into production lower than expected.
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