Aluminium prices will be staged at "Speed ​​Mania"

This week, the London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminum price broke through the five-month-long shock consolidation platform. On Tuesday, it also released 300,000 lots of trading days, and the open interest has reached 560,000 hands. By the time of the start of the bull market in April, the level of positions held. With such perfect volume and price cooperation, LME Aluminum's uptrend market officially started! For domestic aluminum futures, rising prices will also come.

Reviewing the volume of LME aluminum market from 2003 to the present, only two trading volumes have exceeded 300,000. This is the only two times that led to the rally: On September 10, 2003, LME aluminum prices released 317,190 lots of hands near the bottom of 1,430 US dollars/ton, and prices subsequently rose to more than 1,700 US dollars/ton. On October 18, 2005, LME aluminum prices released 339,230 lots of hands near the previous high point of the upside attack of 2,000 U.S. dollars per ton, and prices subsequently soared to over 2,600 U.S. dollars per ton. The current round of aluminum prices broke out at the early stage high of 2,700 US dollars / ton, releasing 302,940 hand days, the price break through the pressure range while accompanied by a large number of transactions, in full compliance with the principle of rising prices rose.

In terms of time, the two previous quotation days for volume creation occurred in September and October, which is also the peak season for aluminum consumption. The volume of aluminum prices in this round is also in full compliance with the law of rising in terms of time. After the LME aluminum price outlook will rise to a high of 3,300 U.S. dollars per ton in the early test period, once the outbreak of the external market rises, the country is bound to rise.

With the recent downturn in domestic alumina prices, the actual cost of aluminum ingots has dropped to a relatively low level. While the cost continues to decline, the spot market is still firm, making the market bearish on the long-term trend of aluminum prices in the future. Therefore, from the position point of view, since September in Shanghai aluminum futures prices have continued to increase during the period, the higher the price, the greater the market disagreement, the more people bearish. However, spot prices have not been able to fall because of strong consumer spending.

Currently from the Shanghai aluminum main positions, the main long held a total of 53,700 hands, while the main bears held 68,500 hands. From the perspective of the position structure, the main long positions are scattered, while the main short positions are more concentrated. The main short seller, the Great Wall Great Wall, held a total of 14,000 gross shorts, and its positions even exceeded the total positions of the top three long positions. On the surface, short strength dominates. However, in-depth analysis we can find that short-term main funds are not hedged. Great Wall Weiye is mainly speculative selling because it does not have a spot background in the aluminum industry. Therefore, it does not have the strength of spot delivery. While the main short-stocking Qingtongxia has a spot background, but in the case of spot prices continue to rise, the choice of delivery not only has no profit but also costs to pay for the delivery, and the spot price increase itself is beneficial to the company, it will certainly choose to buy Close the position. In this way, once a long squeeze market occurs, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's current inventory of 30,000 tons certainly cannot meet the delivery demand. Once the long and short deadlocked situation is broken, the short cuts will push domestic aluminum prices to a new high.

LME aluminum prices since 2003, the volume of days released more than 300,000 hands have led to rising prices. The volume of research as the focus of research, has a guiding significance for the confirmation of the trend. The upside of LME aluminum prices this round indicates that the upward trend has already come. Domestic aluminum market driven by the external disk, it is entirely possible to rise sharply.

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