Domestic and overseas coal price spread narrows down the second half of the import coal market

The global coal market has been experiencing a downturn, particularly noticeable in the second half of the year. As of November 18, the Australian BJ coal spot price had dropped to $80.4 per ton, a decrease of approximately $1.0 per ton compared to the previous month. In October, BJ coal spot prices continued their downward trend, reaching new lows. With a shipping cost of $6.5 and an exchange rate of 1:6.3, the BJ coal CIF price stands at 547.5 yuan per ton, which is around 89 yuan cheaper than the Qinhuangdao coal price. This price differential between Qinhuangdao and international coal markets is expected to widen further.</p> <p>On one hand, this year has seen increased competition in the international coal market, with major producers such as the United States looking to sell their coal to China, driving down prices globally. On the other hand, freight costs have remained relatively low, prompting many Chinese utilities and power plants to source coal from the United States and Colombia. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. coal production reached 1.1 billion tons in 2011, with exports surpassing 107 million tons. It's anticipated that the U.S. will export around 125 million tons of coal this year, breaking the previous record of 113 million tons set in 1981, with a significant portion of these exports destined for the Asian market.</p> <p>This year, under the pressure of a weakening macroeconomic environment, thermal coal consumption has continued to decline. Key power companies' coal inventories have climbed and remained high, while coal stockpiles at consumption and transit ports have also been elevated. The influx of imported coal has further exacerbated the sluggishness of China's coal market, leading to continuous declines in coal prices. In the first eight months alone, China’s cumulative coal imports reached 185 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 46.3%, already surpassing the total coal imports of 182.4 million tons recorded in 2011.</p> <p>While the surge in imported coal is beneficial for domestic power generation and steel industries, the demand during the off-season, especially for private heating, remains moderate. Consequently, the domestic coal market is expected to remain stable, with little fluctuation before the end of the year. However, a substantial increase in imported coal could negatively impact domestic coal prices, reducing the profit margins of domestic coal mining companies. At the same time, this influx could help suppress coal prices during periods of high pricing.</p> <p>Looking ahead, since July, coal imports have consistently declined. In September, imports fell below the 20 million-ton mark to 18.63 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.6%. In October, imports remained below 20 million tons. Analysts predict that the annual coal import volume might stabilize at around 240-250 million tons. In contrast, China's coal exports have shown a downward trend. According to customs data, in October 2012, hard coal and lignite exports totaled 440,000 tons, a 17% drop from the previous month. For the first ten months of this year, total coal exports amounted to 7.89 million tons, a cumulative decrease of 5.02 million tons from the same period last year, marking a 38.9% year-on-year decline.</p> <p>In October 2012, China exported 50,000 tons of coke and semi-coke, generating an export value of $18.714 million. From January to October, cumulative coke and semi-coke exports totaled 910,000 tons, a significant drop of 2.2 million tons compared to the same period last year, representing a year-on-year decrease of 70.8%. The total export value for coke and semi-coke this year reached $401.774 million, a year-on-year decrease of 71.4% compared to the cumulative export value from January to October last year.</p> </div><p><span class=Solar Street Light

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