Near the end of the year, coal prices are expected to usher in a new round of gains. At the beginning of December, the National Development and Reform Commission announced the coal inventory system, which clearly defined the highest inventory and minimum inventory standards for coal enterprises and electricity companies, and clarified the assessment and supervision mechanism. For enterprises that fail to meet the standards, they will be punished accordingly. The system was implemented on January 1, 2018. With the approaching of the end of 2017, the implementation of the coal inventory system has also entered a countdown. According to the coal inventory system, according to different links, regions, enterprises, periods and other factors, the corresponding inventory was determined. Coal enterprise inventory needs to maintain a level of 3 days to 7 days. Most power companies need to maintain inventory for 20 days. In the long run, the coal inventory system is expected to stabilize coal prices, prevent coal prices from rising and falling, and stabilize the coal market. However, due to the current peak season of coal consumption, the daily consumption of power plants remains high, and the inventory of coal enterprises and power companies is not high, which does not meet the standards set by the coal inventory system. The demand for replenishing stocks has caused coal prices to continue to rebound. According to the data, in the past week or so, the daily coal consumption of the six major power group coastal power plants continued to run at more than 700,000 tons, showing a steady growth trend, and seasonal consumption demand continued to be released. As of December 20, the total coal stocks of coastal power plants fell below 11 million tons. Qinhuangdao Coal Network believes that the implementation of the superimposed coal inventory system in the traditional consumption season is approaching, the demand for downstream replenishment is increasing, the acceptance of prices is rising simultaneously, and the price of coastal coal is strengthened. The latest issue of the Bohai Sea Thermal Coal Price Index (December 13 to December 19, 2017) closed at 577 yuan / ton, up 1 yuan / ton from the previous month, ending three consecutive weeks. “Port thermal coal prices have continued to rebound in the near future, railway capacity has been limited, and coal supply in the port market has continued to be tight. As the daily consumption of power plants has gradually increased, winter demand has gradually increased.†CITIC Securities analyst Zhai Guopeng pointed out that the new inventory system is superimposed. It will be officially implemented next year, and the demand for short-term replenishment will be expected to increase. The price of thermal coal will continue to pick up in December. It is expected that the coal price increase driven by this round of replenishment will continue until early January. Zhang Feilong, a researcher at the Yimei Coal Research Institute, also told the "Securities Daily" reporter that the current round of the market will gradually peak in the first half of January, and the further increase of the northern port in late December will be more limited. On December 18, the price of thermal coal futures 1801 contract hit 698.8 yuan / ton, creating a record high for thermal coal futures prices. Qinhuangdao Coal Network pointed out that the contract is close to delivery, and the demonstration effect on spot price is strong, reflecting the strong bullish expectations in the coal market. It is worth mentioning that the data released by the Statistics Bureau recently showed that the national raw coal output in November was 299.98 million tons, down 2.7% year-on-year. This is the only monthly output in November that has not exceeded 300 million tons in the past eight years. On the evening of December 14, China Shenhua announced that the company's commercial coal output in November was 24.2 million tons, down 6.2% year-on-year and 4.76% from the previous month. In November, coal sales were 39.9 million tons, up 9.6% year-on-year. 13.35%. The above data shows that the release of advanced coal production capacity is less than expected. At the same time, in order to cope with the "gas shortage" that occurred this winter, the National Development and Reform Commission requested Beijing to immediately start Huaneng coal-fired units, reduce the natural gas consumption in this city, and alleviate the natural gas shortage in North China. Recently, the Energy Bureau also issued a document requesting that coal enterprises should rationally release some of the advanced coal production capacity according to the demand for thermal production of coal in the northern region during the heating season to ensure the use of coal for people's livelihood. The industry believes that the liberalization of coal-fired heating has further boosted market confidence, using coal peak seasons and concentrated replenishment of stocks, and multiple factors simultaneously support the rise in coal prices. Zu Guopeng also said that looking forward to 2018, the supply and demand increments can basically be matched, the industry supply and demand can maintain a balanced state, coal prices are expected to remain high, roughly the same as 2017. In the case of increased production of leading listed companies, the performance will still have a certain growth, which is expected to range from 10% to 20%.
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