Polysilicon prices rose another 10% for half a month
Yesterday, another source pointed out that at 11 a.m. that day, most of the domestic polysilicon manufacturers updated their solar-grade primary polysilicon quotes at the Solarbe PV market quotation, with the highest quotation of 55 million yuan/ton and the lowest price of 490,000 yuan/ton. Compared with January, the monthly increase was 25%. Some analyst Xie Chen after asking the manufacturers also said that the latest mainstream domestic polysilicon quotes indeed at this level.
The polysilicon spot market price, which has been fluctuating around 400,000 yuan per ton for a long time, has been breaking the deadlock that lasted for nearly two years since the end of July of this year, and it has risen for the first time since the financial crisis. By mid-August, the spot price of polysilicon in the domestic market had increased from the previous 400,000 to 41.5 million yuan per ton to 440,000 yuan to 460,000 yuan, with a half-month increase of about 10%.
Since then, the spot price of polysilicon has continued to rise rapidly. When interviewed by reporters on August 27, Xie Chen stated that the domestic spot price had exceeded 500,000 yuan/ton during the week, and the mainstream quotation was at 485,000 yuan/ton~505,000 yuan/ton. Half-year gains are still around 10%.
It is worth noting that Solarbe issued a message on September 8 that it had previously continued to rise in polysilicon prices, but most domestic polysilicon plants did not follow up prices. With the expansion of plant components and full orders, imported raw materials are in short supply, and domestic raw material plants have finally raised their prices.
According to customs data, China imported 3,682 tons of polysilicon in July, an increase of 34.1% compared with the same period of last year. Compared with the 3,784 tons in June, China's module market showed that the heat of the photovoltaic market remained unabated, and the domestic demand for raw materials for component plants remained high. According to a single month, in the first five months of this year, except February, which was 26.47 million tons, the import volume in the other four months was about 3,200 tons. In the previous July, China imported 23,000 tons of polysilicon, which exceeded the level of the previous year.
Expected rally to last year
The current round of price increase is due to the rapid rise in the global PV industry since the end of last year, from the terminal battery components to the upstream raw materials. The largest PV market that accounts for half of the world's demand - Germany's successive cuts in subsidies led to rush-installation, and the outbreak of demand led to the price increase of photovoltaic products.
On September 8, some analysts said that the spot price of polysilicon has continued to rise, and in addition to the increase in demand, it has also been related to the company’s recent moves. In addition to GCL-Poly, there are not many monolithic polysilicon manufacturers in China. Many first-line component plants have their own polysilicon production lines. The demand for downstream components has continued to thrive, allowing these companies to adjust their product supply structure. The production of polysilicon is more tilted towards their own use, resulting in a reduction in the number of loose orders that have flowed into the spot market and further tightening of supply.
Therefore, the spot price does not fully reflect the actual supply and demand in the industry. In fact, most of the mainstream polysilicon plant supply contracts are mainly based on long-term orders, although the long-term contract price is also floating, but its price increase is far less than the spot as powerful.
Many securities companies expect this wave of polysilicon will continue to rise until the end of this year. Xie Chen also holds the same judgment. He told reporters that the root cause of this price increase was caused by successive cuts in subsidies by major PV installation countries in Europe. While the production of polysilicon from domestic to photovoltaic systems is installed in Europe, this process will take about 1 to 2 months. Therefore, before the downward adjustment of the subsidy in Germany in January next year, the domestic polysilicon surge may be maintained until around November, and will enter a relatively stable state after November.
Industry research institutes agreed that demand for photovoltaics will weaken in the first half of next year, and polysilicon prices will fall back then.